The modern concept was developed by the American economist Simon Kuznets in and adopted as the main measure of a country's economy at the Bretton Woods conference in A product can be used for consumption, for investment, or to replace an asset. In all cases, the product's final "sales receipt" will be added to the total GDP figure. In contrast, "Net" doesn't account for products used to replace an asset in order to offset depreciation. Domestic GDP "Domestic" in "Gross Domestic Product" indicates that the inclusion criterion is geographical: goods and services counted are those produced within the country's border , regardless of the nationality of the producer.
National GNP In contrast, "National" in "Gross National Product" indicates that the inclusion criterion is based on citizenship nationality : goods and services are counted when produced by a national of the country, regardless of where the production physically takes place.
Part of the reason for this is that population size and cost of living are not consistent around the world. For example, comparing the nominal GDP of China to the nominal GDP of Ireland would not provide much meaningful information about the realities of living in those countries because China has approximately times the population of Ireland. To help solve this problem, statisticians sometimes compare GDP per capita between countries. Even so, the measure is still imperfect.
Purchasing power parity PPP attempts to solve this problem by comparing how many goods and services an exchange-rate-adjusted unit of money can purchase in different countries—comparing the price of an item, or basket of items, in two countries after adjusting for the exchange rate between the two, in effect.
Real per-capita GDP, adjusted for purchasing power parity, is a heavily refined statistic to measure true income, which is an important element of well-being. In nominal terms, the worker in Ireland is better off. Most nations release GDP data every month and quarter.
The BEA releases are exhaustive and contain a wealth of detail, enabling economists and investors to obtain information and insights on various aspects of the economy. However, GDP data can have an impact on markets if the actual numbers differ considerably from expectations. Because GDP provides a direct indication of the health and growth of the economy, businesses can use GDP as a guide to their business strategy. Government entities, such as the Fed in the U.
If the growth rate is slowing, they might implement an expansionary monetary policy to try to boost the economy. If the growth rate is robust, they might use monetary policy to slow things down to try to ward off inflation. Real GDP is the indicator that says the most about the health of the economy. It is widely followed and discussed by economists, analysts, investors, and policy-makers.
The advance release of the latest data will almost always move markets, although that impact can be limited, as noted above. Investors watch GDP since it provides a framework for decision-making. Comparing the GDP growth rates of different countries can play a part in asset allocation, aiding decisions about whether to invest in fast-growing economies abroad—and if so, which ones.
One interesting metric that investors can use to get some sense of the valuation of an equity market is the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP , expressed as a percentage. Just as stocks in different sectors trade at widely divergent price-to-sales ratios, different nations trade at market-cap-to-GDP ratios that are literally all over the map. For example, according to the World Bank, the U. However, the utility of this ratio lies in comparing it to historical norms for a particular nation.
As an example, the U. In retrospect, these represented zones of substantial overvaluation and undervaluation, respectively, for U. The biggest downside of this data is its lack of timeliness; investors only get one update per quarter, and revisions can be large enough to significantly alter the percentage change in GDP. The concept of GDP was first proposed in in a report to the U. At the time, the preeminent system of measurement was GNP.
After the Bretton Woods conference in , GDP was widely adopted as the standard means for measuring national economies, although ironically, the U. Beginning in the s, however, some economists and policy-makers began to question GDP. In other words, these critics drew attention to a distinction between economic progress and social progress. There are, of course, drawbacks to using GDP as an indicator. In addition to the lack of timeliness, some criticisms of GDP as a measure are:.
The World Bank hosts one of the most reliable web-based databases. It has one of the best and most comprehensive lists of countries for which it tracks GDP data. The only drawback to using a Fed database is a lack of updating in GDP data and an absence of data for certain countries. Department of Commerce , issues its own analysis document with each GDP release, which is a great investor tool for analyzing figures and trends and reading highlights of the very lengthy full release.
Countries with larger GDPs will have a greater amount of goods and services generated within them, and will generally have a higher standard of living. Due to various limitations, however, many economists have argued that GDP should not be used as a proxy for overall economic success, much less the success of a society more generally. However, their ranking differs depending on how you measure GDP.
Many economists, however, argue that it is more accurate to use purchasing power parity PPP GDP as a measure for national wealth. Most people perceive a higher GDP to be a good thing because it is associated with greater economic opportunities and an improved standard of material well-being. It is possible, however, for a country to have a high GDP and still be an unattractive place to live, so it is important to also consider other measurements.
For example, a country could have a high GDP and a low per-capita GDP , suggesting that significant wealth exists but is concentrated in the hands of very few people. They liken the ability of GDP to give an overall picture of the state of the economy to that of a satellite in space that can survey the weather across an entire continent. GDP enables policy-makers and central banks to judge whether the economy is contracting or expanding, whether it needs a boost or restraint, and if a threat such as a recession or inflation looms on the horizon.
Like any measure, GDP has its imperfections. In recent decades, governments have created various nuanced modifications in attempts to increase GDP accuracy and specificity.
Means of calculating GDP have also evolved continually since its conception to keep up with evolving measurements of industry activity and the generation and consumption of new, emerging forms of intangible assets. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Accessed Sept. World Bank. Bureau of Economic Advisors.
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The UK produces one of the quickest estimates of GDP of the major economies, about 40 days after the quarter in question. The ONS publishes more information on how this is done on its website.
There are lots of things the statistics might not take into account:. Just because GDP is increasing, it doesn't mean that an individual person's standard of living is improving. If a country's population increases, that will push GDP up, because with more people, money will be spent.
However, the individuals within that country might not be getting richer. They may be getting poorer on average, even while GDP goes up. Critics have argued that GDP doesn't take into account whether the economic growth it measures is sustainable, or the damage it might do to the natural world.
In , the ONS started measuring well-being alongside economic growth. This measures health, relationships, education and skills, as well as personal finances and the environment. In , New Zealand's Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, released the country's first "well-being budget", prioritising health and life-satisfaction rather than economic growth. Despite its limitations, GDP is still the most widely-used measure for most government decisions and international comparisons.
Weak pound boosting UK tourism industry. UK consumer spending growth 'falls to record low'. Does GDP tell the whole economic story?
Image source, Getty Images. What is GDP?
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